As the 2024 election approaches, TikTok, auto tariffs, and Taiwan emerge as focal issues that could define the Harris or Trump administration's strategy on U.S.-China relations.

U.S.-China relations have always been one of the most important and complex dynamics in international relations, with technology, trade, and geopolitical and regional security constituting the main core issues. As the 2024 election approaches, issues such as TikTok, auto tariffs, and Taiwan have emerged as key disputes between the two men, reflecting not only each candidate's views on foreign policy, but also how they seek to balance national interests with the needs of an extremely polarized electorate.

TikTok: Data Privacy, National Security and Election Strategy

TikTok has become a central focus of US-China tech tensions. During Trump's first term in office, he took a tough stance on TikTok, trying to force it to sell its U.S. operations, concerned that its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, posed a threat to national security. However, Trump's stance on TikTok has changed as the 2024 campaign unfolds.

Instead of advocating for a ban all together, Trump now sees TikTok as an important tool for engaging young voters, arguing that the platform could expand his campaign's reach, especially in the context of the large number of young people who use TikTok to access news and social information.

This nuanced perspective exemplifies Trump's strategic use of TikTok as a campaign resource, while also highlighting the risks inherent in the platform. If Trump is re-elected, he may reinstate stricter policies after the election to address concerns about data privacy and foreign influence. This flexible strategy allows him to capitalize on TikTok's influence during the campaign while retaining the space to implement stricter policies.

In contrast, Harris is likely to take a more consistent stance on TikTok. A Harris administration might address data privacy risks by adopting comprehensive digital security rules that apply to all foreign-funded apps, creating a uniform set of standards, and certainly seeking a U.S. receiver for TikTok would be an option available to a Harris administration. This would allow Harris to indirectly pressure TikTok and other Chinese tech companies, while avoiding the potential economic and political impact of a comprehensive ban by working with allies to develop multilateral data privacy standards.

Auto tariffs: balancing protectionism with economic strategy

The automotive industry has always been an important part of U.S. manufacturing and a key pillar of the Rust Belt swing states. The decline of the U.S. auto industry in recent years has highlighted the vulnerability of global supply chains and the competition between U.S. and Chinese companies. During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese imports, including auto parts, in an effort to spur a domestic manufacturing renaissance. If re-elected, Trump has already announced that he would reimpose or raise these tariffs, such as those on Chinese-made electric cars to 100 percent, to protect U.S. automakers from Chinese competition. The move is in line with his “America First” campaign theme and could attract support from blue-collar voters in the Midwest, but it would also lead to higher consumer prices and could trigger retaliation from trading partners, making sales of U.S. cars, which have already hit rock bottom in China, even worse.

Harris's approach to the auto industry favors the adoption of domestic incentives and strategic political restrictive initiatives. She would focus on green technology and homegrown electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing, incentivizing U.S. automakers through subsidies and tax breaks to counter China's dominance in EV and battery technology. A Harris administration would also likely consult extensively with European and Asian allies to work toward building a more robust EV supply chain, reducing U.S. dependence on Chinese-made components, and encouraging allied countries, such as those in the European Union, to raise tariffs on Chinese EVs.

Taiwan: Regional Security and Allied Strategy

Taiwan is one of the most sensitive issues in U.S.-China relations, with far-reaching implications for regional security and the potential to escalate into direct confrontation. China views Taiwan as a breakaway province and strongly opposes any U.S. action perceived as supporting Taiwan's independence. In Trump's previous administration, the United States took a bold stance by increasing arms sales to Taiwan and stepping up informal diplomatic support.

If re-elected, Trump could continue this strong support by further increasing the U.S. military presence in the Indo-Pacific region and supporting Taiwan's participation in more international forums. This move would appease U.S. allies, but it is also bound to elicit a strong reaction from China. This is also a step in Trump's “United Russia against China” chessboard.

In contrast, Harris may take a more cautious position on the Taiwan issue, based on multilateral cooperation. Instead of taking obvious confrontational moves, the Harris administration may continue to support Taiwan's defense through arms sales to Taiwan, while strengthening ties with allies in the Indo-Pacific region, such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, in order to deter China's aggression and maintain stability in the Taiwan Strait through diplomacy, rather than military escalation. Allowing the U.S. to contain both China and Russia on two fronts at once continues Biden's foreign policy.

Conclusion

The 2024 U.S. presidential election presents two clear directions for U.S. policy toward China. A second Trump administration will likely continue to take a hard-line stance, using TikTok, tariffs, and Taiwan policy as tools to directly pressure China. However, the flexibility of Trump's stance on TikTok during the campaign suggests that he is able to use the platform to galvanize voter interest for real-world benefits, but the odds are that he will change course after the election. Harris, on the other hand, advocates a more prudent strategy that relies on multilateral cooperation and economic incentives to contain China without immediately escalating the conflict. Each of the two strategies has its own specific risks and benefits. Trump's policies may increase U.S. influence in the short term, but run the risk of leading to an escalation of conflict, while Harris's policy of multilateral incentives may bring stability, but may appear too hesitant to show China the weakness of a Democratic administration. In any case, however, the outcome of this election will have far-reaching implications for U.S.-China relations and affect technology, trade, and regional security for decades to come.