Veepstakes in the 2024 Election: The Balancing Act of J.D. Vance and Tim Walz
Aug 20, 2024
Bill Wu - As Republicans and Democrats refine their appeals to voters, the vice-presidential picks of J.D. Vance and Tim Walz reveal each party’s strategy for uniting their bases and winning swing-state influence.
In previous presidential elections, the two individuals on the ballot have typically complemented each other. This time around, the Republican and Democratic vice presidential selections are no exception. For the Republican side, Trump's final three choices were Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
Rubio's Florida affiliation may have caused Trump to worry about his qualifications. Rumors suggest that Rubio's failure to express unwavering loyalty to Trump and his disadvantage of not being from a swing state led to his early elimination from the VP selection.
Of the remaining candidates, one is a traditional white Republican male from the Midwest, while the other is an attack dog, Rust Belt-born, young Republican, J.D. Vance, representing a new set of Republican values. This seems like an easy choice, and in fact, Trump made his decision based on this. However, I would have preferred a more comprehensive screening of Vance, because this could have prevented the recent controversy surrounding the statements he has made, especially about marriage and families.
Hillbilly Elegy, the autobiographical work made by Vance, will be of more practical significance to his character than any achievement in his life. The fundamental reason he is a vice presidential candidate to this day is still the book and his background playing a role.
Vance's background is rich, and this richness makes him broadly representative of the Rust Belt working man's family, the Hillbilly family of the South, the Appalachian Mountains, growing up with drugs and violence, layered with a devotion to Christianity. He is a representation of the American Dream from a family of misfortunes, struggling from the bottom, the populist vision of the Republican Party right now.
He became a representative of the American Dream by trying to write an autobiography, as many people of similar backgrounds do, and a variety of professional writers and literary scholars would come along and revise it. Vance, for example, had a lot of help from Yale professor Amy Chua in writing Hillbilly Elegy. This book portrayed Vance in a way that paved the way for his political career.
Vance's story is sensible, but like any representative with populist attributes, his ability to appeal to moderates is something Vance has yet to prove. He won the senate election, but since being selected as a vice presidential candidate, his lack of political experience has been on display. Vance's potential is still vast and he will continue to shape the MAGA movement as the voice of midwestern populism in the Republican Party.
On the Democratic side, with several of Harris' vice presidential candidates, Kelly in Arizona and Pennsylvania Gov. Shapiro, generating early negatives, it's hard to argue that this isn't a deliberate effort by certain high ranking party members to steer the situation. But both candidates had their natural huge disadvantages as well; Kelly is a conservative in the Democratic Party and may be favorable to the southern Sunbelt and moderate voters, but the moderate vote is a considerable uncertainty in any election. Shapiro, on the other hand, is not considered a good candidate either, as he has a Jewish background that could have had an impact on the Democrats' pro-Palestinian base. Harris needed an older white male from a swing state who is not on the radical left to help him, and fellow pragmatist Walz fits the bill nicely. Walz also has deep experience with China and could fill Harris's void on that question. However, given his pragmatic style, this would make it sure that if he were to take office, he would continue the general policy direction of competition with China. There are rumors that Obama and other Democratic leaders have swayed the decision in the direction of Walz.
In terms of existing results, Walz, with his vast political experience, certainly works better. He managed to further blue Minnesota and put all three Rust Belt swing states ahead in the polls. It's safe to say that Walz has driven the effect of the Democrats' northern base well.
That is to say that both sides have devised campaign approaches that catalyze their party's base as much as possible, as reflected in the choice of vice president.